Vertical contours signify the season where the most recent ree productive (January 1979)

Since the our very own basic piece of research, the major committee regarding Shape step one examines the average marriage prices of the season for two age range from widows (age 50 to 59 and you can sixty so you’re able to 70) between 1968 and 1995. For the 60- so you’re able to 70-year-olds , we reveal a reduction in the wedding speed following 1977 passage through of the law. This means that one to widows decades 60 or old delayed marriage ceremonies in 1978 from inside the expectation of your legislation is effective. matrimony rates towards the widows within ages of fifty and you may 59 are declining around the law alter, the asked a reaction to the law alter.

Panel A great (descriptive data) explores average relationships pricing because of the chose ages 1968–1995 . To have widows old 60–70 , discover a reduction in the remarriage price following passing of your own laws in 1977, suggesting widows old 60 otherwise old postponed marrying in 1978 when you look at the expectation of your own law becoming good at 1979. There’s a boost in the e good at 1979, which implies one a great number of women could have preferred to help you get married, however, didn’t follow matrimony at the time by punishment regarding Social Security measures.

For widows age 50–59 , marriage rates decline within legislation transform, producing the fresh asked a reaction to that alter. Keep in mind that other variables, like the total decrease in marriage rates during this time, commonly taken into account.

Committee B (regression results) gives the regression results of desire. In most cases, the wedding rates to own widows less than decades sixty was after that below the newest baseline seasons compared to rate for widows who’re on least on sixty. To possess widows not as much as years sixty, legislation didn’t have tall consequences.

Although not, so it detailed research doesn’t make up other variables, in particular, an overall total decrease in matrimony pricing during this period

To possess widows over-age sixty, the knowledge show that during the 1977, their marrying rate is 2 percent beneath the standard year, plus 1978 (the entire year legislation is actually passed) the wedding price is actually 13 percent below the latest baseline year. Those prices try mathematically different from each other at the 6 % height, giving support to the chance you to widows over age 60 put-off matrimony until their wedding penalty try removed. In the 1979 (the entire year regulations turned active) the wedding rates try 20% highest from the standard-the most significant confident deviation from the shot months. (Full regression results are in Appendix Dining table step 1.)

Notes: The newest numerator is the weighted level of marriage ceremonies in the years group and season out-of states that were from the MRA to own every age ranging from 1968 and you may 1995 and therefore stated early in the day marital position to their relationships permits. This new denominator ‘s the amount of widows in the decades class and you will 12 months throughout claims. Get a hold of Appendix Table step 1 having information on coefficients and you may fundamental errors.

Discover an increase in the new e good at 1979 implying that lots of feminine would have liked so you’re able to get married, but don’t take action because of the punishment regarding the Societal Safety measures

ln ( marriage rate age , year ) = ? + ? ? ( year ) + ? ? ( year * at least age 60 dummy age , year ) + ? ? ( age ) + ? , where < age>

All of our established variable ‘s the sheer log out of single-ages and you will year matrimony prices getting fifty to 70 yr old widows. I regress the latest journal relationship speed to your 12 months dummies, omitting 1968; a connection title between every year and you can a good dummy to own whether the marriage speed is actually for feminine no less than years 60; and you will, dummies for every years classification, omitting this-50 classification. Which have twenty-eight numerous years of investigation and you may 21 age groups you will find 588 observations.